New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 9.8 points (79% win probability), projected score DEN 125, NOP 115, total 240.2 (80% range 217–264). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.5 points toward DEN).
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.8 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Denver Nuggets rank 9 (+3.6, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.4 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.8-point margin above. A 79% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DEN margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.4 (DEN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.5 (DEN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (DEN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +3.1 (DEN margin)
Rest and travel
NOP: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 370 miles of travel, at altitude. DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 506 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
Four factors
| NOP (2025-26) | DEN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 119.6 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 114.5 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 100.8 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.284 | 0.294 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.3% |
Denver Nuggets · New Orleans Pelicans · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.