Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Phoenix Suns to win by 3.8 points (62% win probability), projected score PHX 118, GSW 114, total 231.5 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (3.3 points toward PHX).
Matchup
Golden State Warriors rank 13 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.5 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Phoenix Suns rank 16 (+0.7, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.8 points to Golden State Warriors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.8-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Phoenix Suns should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHX margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.0 (PHX margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.1 (PHX margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (PHX margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +3.3 (PHX margin)
Rest and travel
GSW: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 651 miles of travel. PHX: 2 day(s) of rest, 1,006 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
GSW: Brandin Podziemski 23, Stephen Curry 22, Draymond Green 22, Moses Moody 22, Gui Santos 21, Jimmy Butler III 21, De'Anthony Melton 17, Kristaps Porzingis 17, Al Horford 16.
PHX: Devin Booker 30, Jalen Green 27, Dillon Brooks 27, Miles Bridges 24, Luke Kennard 23, Oso Ighodaro 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Jordan Goodwin 17, Pat Spencer 15.
Four factors
| GSW (2025-26) | PHX (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 112.1 |
| DRtg | 112.6 | 110.6 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 100.1 |
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.9% |
| FT rate | 0.238 | 0.225 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.1% |
Phoenix Suns · Golden State Warriors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.