Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Los Angeles Lakers to win by 1.8 points (56% win probability), projected score UTA 119, LAL 121, total 239.4 (80% range 216–263). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.0 points toward LAL).
Matchup
Los Angeles Lakers rank 11 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.6 points against an average opponent, about 44 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 21 (−1.8, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.4 points to Los Angeles Lakers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.8-point margin above. A 56% win probability means Los Angeles Lakers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.0 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.8 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.7 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.3 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
LAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 581 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
LAL: Austin Reaves 32, Luka Doncic 30, Walker Kessler 26, Collin Sexton 25, Ziaire Williams 20, Quentin Grimes 19, Jaden Hardy 17, Kevon Looney 15, Jake LaRavia 14.
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
Four factors
| LAL (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.4 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 113.7 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 100.7 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 57.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.320 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 57.8% |
Utah Jazz · Los Angeles Lakers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.