Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 3.6 points (62% win probability), projected score BKN 115, IND 119, total 233.9 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.8 points toward IND).
Matchup
Indiana Pacers rank 23 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Brooklyn Nets rank 30 (−5.5, about 25 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.2 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.6-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (BKN margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.8 (BKN margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.9 (BKN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (BKN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.6 (BKN margin)
Rest and travel
IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 645 miles of travel. BKN: second night of a back-to-back, 405 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
BKN: Julius Randle 24, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Ben Saraf 21, Tyson Etienne 20, Drake Powell 20, Egor Demin 19, E.J. Liddell 18, Terance Mann 16, Danny Wolf 16.
Four factors
| IND (2025-26) | BKN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.3 | 105.9 |
| DRtg | 116 | 115.9 |
| Pace | 103.4 | 99.6 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.252 | 0.272 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 57.1% |
Brooklyn Nets · Indiana Pacers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.