Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects New York Knicks to win by 5.7 points (68% win probability), projected score NYK 116, ORL 110, total 225.5 (80% range 202–249). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.5 points toward NYK).
Matchup
Orlando Magic rank 12 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.1 points against an average opponent, about 43 projected wins in 2026-27); New York Knicks rank 3 (+6.3, about 53 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.2 points to New York Knicks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.7-point margin above. A 68% win probability means New York Knicks should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NYK margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.0 (NYK margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.5 (NYK margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.8 (NYK margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (NYK margin)
Rest and travel
ORL: 1 day(s) of rest, 942 miles of travel. NYK: 1 day(s) of rest, 188 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
NYK: Jalen Brunson 36, OG Anunoby 32, Mikal Bridges 31, Josh Hart 30, Karl-Anthony Towns 28, Landry Shamet 19, Miles McBride 13, Jose Alvarado 10, Andre Drummond 10.
Four factors
| ORL (2025-26) | NYK (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 116.8 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 110.4 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 99.4 |
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.6% |
| FT rate | 0.311 | 0.237 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.0% |
New York Knicks · Orlando Magic · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.