Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score MIN 113, TOR 116, total 229.0 (80% range 205–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.3 points toward TOR).
Matchup
Toronto Raptors rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 (−0.1, about 37 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.3 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIN margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.3 (MIN margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.0 (MIN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.1 (MIN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.1 (MIN margin)
Rest and travel
TOR: 1 day(s) of rest, 933 miles of travel. MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,310 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
TOR: RJ Barrett 31, Scottie Barnes 30, Kawhi Leonard 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 25, Collin Murray-Boyles 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Jakob Poeltl 16, Andre Jackson Jr. 13.
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
Four factors
| TOR (2025-26) | MIN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.9 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 110.1 | 110.5 |
| Pace | 101 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.7% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.285 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.9% |
Minnesota Timberwolves · Toronto Raptors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.