Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Detroit Pistons to win by 2.1 points (57% win probability), projected score PHI 113, DET 115, total 228.6 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (2.2 points toward DET).
Matchup
Detroit Pistons rank 8 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.9 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 (+2.7, about 45 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.2 points to Detroit Pistons; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.1-point margin above. A 57% win probability means Detroit Pistons should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (PHI margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.3 (PHI margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (PHI margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (PHI margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −2.2 (PHI margin)
Rest and travel
DET: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,018 miles of travel. PHI: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
DET: Cade Cunningham 33, Elijah Harkless 25, Taurean Prince 24, Ausar Thompson 24, Jalen Duren 23, Daniss Jenkins 23, Duncan Robinson 23, John Collins 19, Kevin Huerter 10.
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
Four factors
| DET (2025-26) | PHI (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 114.4 | 112.2 |
| DRtg | 106.5 | 112.4 |
| Pace | 102.3 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.292 | 0.275 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.1% |
Philadelphia 76ers · Detroit Pistons · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.