Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Sacramento Kings to win by 0.7 points (52% win probability), projected score SAC 118, MEM 118, total 235.9 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward SAC).
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.8 points against an average opponent, about 28 projected wins in 2026-27); Sacramento Kings rank 28 (−4.8, about 27 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.0 points to Memphis Grizzlies; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.7-point margin above. A 52% win probability means Sacramento Kings should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAC margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.4 (SAC margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.8 (SAC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (SAC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.5 (SAC margin)
Rest and travel
MEM: 1 day(s) of rest, 74 miles of travel. SAC: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
Four factors
| MEM (2025-26) | SAC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 109.9 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 118.4 |
| Pace | 104.1 | 101.8 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.9% |
| FT rate | 0.251 | 0.256 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 57.2% |
Sacramento Kings · Memphis Grizzlies · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.