Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 8.7 points (77% win probability), projected score CHA 121, WAS 112, total 233.2 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.9 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.3 points against an average opponent, about 26 projected wins in 2026-27); Charlotte Hornets rank 15 (+0.9, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.2 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 8.7-point margin above. A 77% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CHA margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.2 (CHA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.9 (CHA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.1 (CHA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.2 (CHA margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 589 miles of travel. CHA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | CHA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 115.7 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 104 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.5% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.244 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.0% |
Charlotte Hornets · Washington Wizards · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.