Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 9.8 points (79% win probability), projected score CLE 121, MIN 111, total 231.7 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (3.3 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−0.1 points against an average opponent, about 37 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.2 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.8-point margin above. A 79% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CLE margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.0 (CLE margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.2 (CLE margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (CLE margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +3.3 (CLE margin)
Rest and travel
MIN: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 630 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
Four factors
| MIN (2025-26) | CLE (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 116.1 |
| DRtg | 110.5 | 112.1 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 26.9% |
| FT rate | 0.285 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.3% |
Cleveland Cavaliers · Minnesota Timberwolves · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.