Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Boston Celtics to win by 12.3 points (85% win probability), projected score BOS 121, CHI 109, total 230.2 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.6 points toward BOS).
Matchup
Chicago Bulls rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.9 points against an average opponent, about 29 projected wins in 2026-27); Boston Celtics rank 4 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 9.0 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.3-point margin above. A 85% win probability means Boston Celtics should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (BOS margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.6 (BOS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +5.6 (BOS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.8 (BOS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.0 (BOS margin)
Rest and travel
CHI: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 851 miles of travel. BOS: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
CHI: Josh Giddey 24, Leonard Miller 23, Matas Buzelis 22, Patrick Williams 21, Isaac Okoro 20, Tre Jones 19, Rob Dillingham 19, Guerschon Yabusele 18, Norman Powell 18.
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
Four factors
| CHI (2025-26) | BOS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.6 | 117.2 |
| DRtg | 115.5 | 109.4 |
| Pace | 104.8 | 97.7 |
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 29.2% |
| FT rate | 0.246 | 0.207 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.3% |
Boston Celtics · Chicago Bulls · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.