Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Milwaukee Bucks to win by 2.4 points (58% win probability), projected score MIL 118, IND 116, total 233.4 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (2.3 points toward MIL).
Matchup
Indiana Pacers rank 23 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−3.5, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.2 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.4-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Milwaukee Bucks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.8 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.2 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.3 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
IND: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 735 miles of travel. MIL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 694 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
Four factors
| IND (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.3 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 116 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 103.4 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.252 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.8% |
Milwaukee Bucks · Indiana Pacers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.