Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 5.5 points (68% win probability), projected score HOU 115, ATL 110, total 225.3 (80% range 202–249). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.8 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Atlanta Hawks rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.6 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.6 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.5-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (HOU margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.7 (HOU margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.8 (HOU margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (HOU margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (HOU margin)
Rest and travel
ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 701 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 701 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
Four factors
| ATL (2025-26) | HOU (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.3 | 115.1 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 109.9 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 99 |
| eFG% | 55.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 34.8% |
| FT rate | 0.234 | 0.260 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 53.0% |
Houston Rockets · Atlanta Hawks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.