Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Utah Jazz to win by 4.7 points (65% win probability), projected score UTA 126, MEM 122, total 248.0 (80% range 224–272). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.4 points toward UTA).
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.8 points against an average opponent, about 28 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 21 (−1.8, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.0 points to Utah Jazz; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.7-point margin above. A 65% win probability means Utah Jazz should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.4 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.6 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.5 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
MEM: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 532 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
Four factors
| MEM (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 109.9 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 104.1 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.251 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 57.8% |
Utah Jazz · Memphis Grizzlies · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.