Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 5.1 points (66% win probability), projected score DEN 120, GSW 115, total 234.3 (80% range 211–258). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.7 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Golden State Warriors rank 13 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.5 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Denver Nuggets rank 9 (+3.6, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.1 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.1-point margin above. A 66% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DEN margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.4 (DEN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.2 (DEN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.5 (DEN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.7 (DEN margin)
Rest and travel
GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 585 miles of travel, at altitude. DEN: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
GSW: Brandin Podziemski 23, Stephen Curry 22, Draymond Green 22, Moses Moody 22, Gui Santos 21, Jimmy Butler III 21, De'Anthony Melton 17, Kristaps Porzingis 17, Al Horford 16.
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
Four factors
| GSW (2025-26) | DEN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 119.6 |
| DRtg | 112.6 | 114.5 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 100.8 |
| eFG% | 54.9% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.238 | 0.294 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.3% |
Denver Nuggets · Golden State Warriors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.