Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
The model projects Boston Celtics to win by 11.1 points (82% win probability), projected score BOS 117, BKN 106, total 222.4 (80% range 199–246). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.5 points toward BOS).
Matchup
Brooklyn Nets rank 30 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.5 points against an average opponent, about 25 projected wins in 2026-27); Boston Celtics rank 4 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 10.6 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 11.1-point margin above. A 82% win probability means Boston Celtics should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (BOS margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.9 (BOS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +5.5 (BOS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.2 (BOS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −0.7 (BOS margin)
Rest and travel
BKN: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 190 miles of travel. BOS: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
BKN: Julius Randle 24, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Ben Saraf 21, Tyson Etienne 20, Drake Powell 20, Egor Demin 19, E.J. Liddell 18, Terance Mann 16, Danny Wolf 16.
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
Four factors
| BKN (2025-26) | BOS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 105.9 | 117.2 |
| DRtg | 115.9 | 109.4 |
| Pace | 99.6 | 97.7 |
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 29.2% |
| FT rate | 0.272 | 0.207 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 52.3% |
Boston Celtics · Brooklyn Nets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.