Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 16.5 points (92% win probability), projected score SAS 123, SAC 106, total 229.2 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player on-court impact (6.8 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Sacramento Kings rank 28 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 13.6 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 16.5-point margin above. A 92% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +5.4 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +6.8 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.7 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,459 miles of travel. SAS: 2 day(s) of rest, 252 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
Four factors
| SAC (2025-26) | SAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 116.6 |
| DRtg | 118.4 | 108.7 |
| Pace | 101.8 | 102.5 |
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.3% |
| FT rate | 0.256 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 52.2% |
San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.