Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 12.8 points (86% win probability), projected score CLE 125, WAS 112, total 237.5 (80% range 214–261). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.5 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.3 points against an average opponent, about 26 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 10.4 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.8-point margin above. A 86% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CLE margin)
- Player box-score production: +4.0 (CLE margin)
- Player on-court impact: +5.5 (CLE margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (CLE margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (CLE margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 436 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | CLE (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 116.1 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 112.1 |
| Pace | 104 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 26.9% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.3% |
Cleveland Cavaliers · Washington Wizards · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.