Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Detroit Pistons to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score DET 112, CHA 109, total 220.9 (80% range 197–245). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.9 points toward DET).
Matchup
Charlotte Hornets rank 15 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.9 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Detroit Pistons rank 8 (+3.9, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.0 points to Detroit Pistons; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Detroit Pistons should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DET margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.9 (DET margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.0 (DET margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.2 (DET margin)
Rest and travel
CHA: 1 day(s) of rest, 506 miles of travel. DET: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 481 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
DET: Cade Cunningham 33, Elijah Harkless 25, Taurean Prince 24, Ausar Thompson 24, Jalen Duren 23, Daniss Jenkins 23, Duncan Robinson 23, John Collins 19, Kevin Huerter 10.
Four factors
| CHA (2025-26) | DET (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.7 | 114.4 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 106.5 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.9% |
| FT rate | 0.244 | 0.292 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.7% |
Detroit Pistons · Charlotte Hornets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.