Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Philadelphia 76ers to win by 3.2 points (61% win probability), projected score IND 118, PHI 121, total 238.4 (80% range 215–262). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.1 points toward PHI).
Matchup
Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.7 points against an average opponent, about 45 projected wins in 2026-27); Indiana Pacers rank 23 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.0 points to Philadelphia 76ers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.2-point margin above. A 61% win probability means Philadelphia 76ers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (IND margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.1 (IND margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.5 (IND margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (IND margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.5 (IND margin)
Rest and travel
PHI: 2 day(s) of rest, 582 miles of travel. IND: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 244 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
Four factors
| PHI (2025-26) | IND (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.2 | 108.3 |
| DRtg | 112.4 | 116 |
| Pace | 102.3 | 103.4 |
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 21.7% |
| FT rate | 0.275 | 0.252 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.6% |
Indiana Pacers · Philadelphia 76ers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.