Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 4.9 points (66% win probability), projected score TOR 117, ORL 112, total 229.6 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.5 points toward TOR).
Matchup
Orlando Magic rank 12 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.1 points against an average opponent, about 43 projected wins in 2026-27); Toronto Raptors rank 7 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.1 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.9-point margin above. A 66% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (TOR margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.2 (TOR margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.9 (TOR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.1 (TOR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.5 (TOR margin)
Rest and travel
ORL: 2 day(s) of rest, 340 miles of travel. TOR: 2 day(s) of rest, 692 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
TOR: RJ Barrett 31, Scottie Barnes 30, Kawhi Leonard 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 25, Collin Murray-Boyles 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Jakob Poeltl 16, Andre Jackson Jr. 13.
Four factors
| ORL (2025-26) | TOR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 112.9 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 110.1 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 101 |
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| FT rate | 0.311 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.0% |
Toronto Raptors · Orlando Magic · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.