Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 5.7 points (68% win probability), projected score MIL 109, HOU 115, total 223.4 (80% range 200–247). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.0 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Houston Rockets rank 6 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−3.5, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.7 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.7-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.9 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −4.0 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.8 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,006 miles of travel. MIL: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
Four factors
| HOU (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.1 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 109.9 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 99 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.260 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 55.8% |
Milwaukee Bucks · Houston Rockets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.