Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Minnesota Timberwolves to win by 0.6 points (52% win probability), projected score MIN 116, GSW 116, total 231.6 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward MIN).
Matchup
Golden State Warriors rank 13 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.5 points against an average opponent, about 41 projected wins in 2026-27); Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 (−0.1, about 37 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.6 points to Golden State Warriors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.6-point margin above. A 52% win probability means Minnesota Timberwolves should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIN margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.0 (MIN margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.0 (MIN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (MIN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MIN margin)
Rest and travel
GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, 698 miles of travel. MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 630 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
GSW: Brandin Podziemski 23, Stephen Curry 22, Draymond Green 22, Moses Moody 22, Gui Santos 21, Jimmy Butler III 21, De'Anthony Melton 17, Kristaps Porzingis 17, Al Horford 16.
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
Four factors
| GSW (2025-26) | MIN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 112.6 | 110.5 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 25.7% |
| FT rate | 0.238 | 0.285 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.9% |
Minnesota Timberwolves · Golden State Warriors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.