Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score NOP 118, DEN 121, total 238.7 (80% range 215–262). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.5 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Denver Nuggets rank 9 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.6 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−1.8, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.4 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NOP margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.4 (NOP margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.5 (NOP margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (NOP margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.2 (NOP margin)
Rest and travel
DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,081 miles of travel. NOP: 3 day(s) of rest, 1,081 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
Four factors
| DEN (2025-26) | NOP (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 119.6 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 114.5 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 100.8 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 57.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.0% |
| FT rate | 0.294 | 0.284 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.5% |
New Orleans Pelicans · Denver Nuggets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.