San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 7.1 points (72% win probability), projected score UTA 117, SAS 124, total 240.4 (80% range 217–264). The largest driver is player on-court impact (6.6 points toward SAS).
Matchup
San Antonio Spurs rank 1 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 21 (−1.8, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 10.6 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.1-point margin above. A 72% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.6 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −6.6 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.3 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.2 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
SAS: second night of a back-to-back, 1,090 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
Four factors
| SAS (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.6 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 108.7 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 102.5 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.273 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.8% |
Utah Jazz · San Antonio Spurs · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.