Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 2.5 points (58% win probability), projected score ATL 115, CLE 117, total 231.9 (80% range 208–256). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.2 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Atlanta Hawks rank 17 (+0.6, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.5 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.5-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ATL margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.2 (ATL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.1 (ATL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (ATL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.8 (ATL margin)
Rest and travel
CLE: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 555 miles of travel. ATL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
Four factors
| CLE (2025-26) | ATL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.1 | 113.3 |
| DRtg | 112.1 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 24.4% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.234 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.6% |
Atlanta Hawks · Cleveland Cavaliers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.