Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The model projects New Orleans Pelicans to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score NOP 120, SAC 117, total 236.2 (80% range 213–260). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.3 points toward NOP).
Matchup
Sacramento Kings rank 28 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−1.8, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.0 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means New Orleans Pelicans should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NOP margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.3 (NOP margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.4 (NOP margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.3 (NOP margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.3 (NOP margin)
Rest and travel
SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 503 miles of travel. NOP: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
Four factors
| SAC (2025-26) | NOP (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 118.4 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 101.8 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.0% |
| FT rate | 0.256 | 0.284 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 55.5% |
New Orleans Pelicans · Sacramento Kings · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.