Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The model projects Portland Trail Blazers to win by 7.3 points (73% win probability), projected score POR 122, MEM 115, total 236.3 (80% range 213–260). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.6 points toward POR).
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.8 points against an average opponent, about 28 projected wins in 2026-27); Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 (+1.1, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.9 points to Portland Trail Blazers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.3-point margin above. A 73% win probability means Portland Trail Blazers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (POR margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.6 (POR margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.5 (POR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.8 (POR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.2 (POR margin)
Rest and travel
MEM: 2 day(s) of rest, 634 miles of travel. POR: 1 day(s) of rest, 827 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
POR: Jrue Holiday 29, Deni Avdija 28, Toumani Camara 26, Damian Lillard 23, Ja Morant 23, Scoot Henderson 22, Micah Potter 19, Donovan Clingan 19, Robert Williams III 16.
Four factors
| MEM (2025-26) | POR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 109.9 | 111 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 104.1 | 103.6 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 31.3% |
| FT rate | 0.251 | 0.280 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 54.1% |
Portland Trail Blazers · Memphis Grizzlies · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.