Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects Utah Jazz to win by 0.0 points (50% win probability), projected score UTA 120, POR 120, total 240.7 (80% range 217–264). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.1 points toward POR).
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.1 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Utah Jazz rank 21 (−1.8, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.9 points to Portland Trail Blazers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.0-point margin above. A 50% win probability means Utah Jazz should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (UTA margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (UTA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (UTA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.6 (UTA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.6 (UTA margin)
Rest and travel
POR: 1 day(s) of rest, 634 miles of travel, at altitude. UTA: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
POR: Jrue Holiday 29, Deni Avdija 28, Toumani Camara 26, Damian Lillard 23, Ja Morant 23, Scoot Henderson 22, Micah Potter 19, Donovan Clingan 19, Robert Williams III 16.
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
Four factors
| POR (2025-26) | UTA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 119.2 |
| Pace | 103.6 | 104.9 |
| eFG% | 53.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.2% |
| FT rate | 0.280 | 0.277 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 57.8% |
Utah Jazz · Portland Trail Blazers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.