Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 0.3 points (51% win probability), projected score CHA 116, PHI 115, total 230.7 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.2 points toward PHI).
Matchup
Philadelphia 76ers rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.7 points against an average opponent, about 45 projected wins in 2026-27); Charlotte Hornets rank 15 (+0.9, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.8 points to Philadelphia 76ers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.3-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CHA margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.2 (CHA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.1 (CHA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (CHA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (CHA margin)
Rest and travel
PHI: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 448 miles of travel. CHA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 330 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
PHI: Tyrese Maxey 29, LeBron James 27, VJ Edgecombe 27, Jaylen Brown 26, Rayan Rupert 25, Joel Embiid 24, Anfernee Simons 19, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17, Dean Wade 15.
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
Four factors
| PHI (2025-26) | CHA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.2 | 115.7 |
| DRtg | 112.4 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 102.3 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.5% |
| FT rate | 0.275 | 0.244 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.0% |
Charlotte Hornets · Philadelphia 76ers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.