Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects New Orleans Pelicans to win by 0.2 points (51% win probability), projected score NOP 119, ATL 118, total 236.8 (80% range 213–260). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.4 points toward ATL).
Matchup
Atlanta Hawks rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.6 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 (−1.8, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.4 points to Atlanta Hawks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.2-point margin above. A 51% win probability means New Orleans Pelicans should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (NOP margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.2 (NOP margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.4 (NOP margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (NOP margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.3 (NOP margin)
Rest and travel
ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 425 miles of travel. NOP: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
Four factors
| ATL (2025-26) | NOP (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.3 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 27.0% |
| FT rate | 0.234 | 0.284 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 55.5% |
New Orleans Pelicans · Atlanta Hawks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.