Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects Memphis Grizzlies to win by 2.7 points (59% win probability), projected score MEM 119, SAC 117, total 235.9 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward MEM).
Matchup
Sacramento Kings rank 28 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 (−3.8, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.0 points to Memphis Grizzlies; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.7-point margin above. A 59% win probability means Memphis Grizzlies should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MEM margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.4 (MEM margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.8 (MEM margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (MEM margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.4 (MEM margin)
Rest and travel
SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 359 miles of travel. MEM: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,846 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
Four factors
| SAC (2025-26) | MEM (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 109.9 |
| DRtg | 118.4 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 101.8 | 104.1 |
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.7% |
| FT rate | 0.256 | 0.251 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 56.2% |
Memphis Grizzlies · Sacramento Kings · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.