Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 5.3 points (67% win probability), projected score MIL 112, CLE 117, total 229.4 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (4.4 points toward CLE).
Matchup
Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 (−3.5, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.6 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.3-point margin above. A 67% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −4.4 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.4 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.8 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.0 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 669 miles of travel. MIL: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
Four factors
| CLE (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116.1 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 112.1 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 102.6 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.8% |
Milwaukee Bucks · Cleveland Cavaliers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.