Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 13.3 points (87% win probability), projected score SAS 122, MIN 109, total 230.9 (80% range 207–255). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.0 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−0.1 points against an average opponent, about 37 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.9 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 13.3-point margin above. A 87% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.1 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +5.0 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.7 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +3.2 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
MIN: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 1,111 miles of travel. SAS: 2 day(s) of rest, 1,090 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
Four factors
| MIN (2025-26) | SAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 116.6 |
| DRtg | 110.5 | 108.7 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 102.5 |
| eFG% | 55.9% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 26.3% |
| FT rate | 0.285 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.2% |
San Antonio Spurs · Minnesota Timberwolves · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.