Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
The model projects Boston Celtics to win by 1.5 points (55% win probability), projected score ORL 111, BOS 113, total 223.5 (80% range 200–247). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.5 points toward BOS).
Matchup
Boston Celtics rank 4 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Orlando Magic rank 12 (+2.1, about 43 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.0 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.5-point margin above. A 55% win probability means Boston Celtics should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ORL margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (ORL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.5 (ORL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.3 (ORL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (ORL margin)
Rest and travel
BOS: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,116 miles of travel. ORL: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,049 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
Four factors
| BOS (2025-26) | ORL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 117.2 | 112 |
| DRtg | 109.4 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 97.7 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 25.0% |
| FT rate | 0.207 | 0.311 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.5% |
Orlando Magic · Boston Celtics · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.