Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 4.6 points (65% win probability), projected score IND 119, BKN 114, total 233.4 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.8 points toward IND).
Matchup
Brooklyn Nets rank 30 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.5 points against an average opponent, about 25 projected wins in 2026-27); Indiana Pacers rank 23 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.2 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.6-point margin above. A 65% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (IND margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.8 (IND margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.9 (IND margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (IND margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (IND margin)
Rest and travel
BKN: 1 day(s) of rest, 645 miles of travel. IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,026 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
BKN: Julius Randle 24, Michael Porter Jr. 23, Ben Saraf 21, Tyson Etienne 20, Drake Powell 20, Egor Demin 19, E.J. Liddell 18, Terance Mann 16, Danny Wolf 16.
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
Four factors
| BKN (2025-26) | IND (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 105.9 | 108.3 |
| DRtg | 115.9 | 116 |
| Pace | 99.6 | 103.4 |
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| FT rate | 0.272 | 0.252 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 55.6% |
Indiana Pacers · Brooklyn Nets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.