Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
The model projects Toronto Raptors to win by 0.3 points (51% win probability), projected score LAL 113, TOR 114, total 226.8 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.7 points toward TOR).
Matchup
Toronto Raptors rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.2 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Los Angeles Lakers rank 11 (+2.6, about 44 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.6 points to Toronto Raptors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.3-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Toronto Raptors should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (LAL margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.2 (LAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.7 (LAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.1 (LAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.1 (LAL margin)
Rest and travel
TOR: 1 day(s) of rest, 2,173 miles of travel. LAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 345 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
TOR: RJ Barrett 31, Scottie Barnes 30, Kawhi Leonard 27, Ja'Kobe Walter 26, Jamal Shead 25, Collin Murray-Boyles 21, Immanuel Quickley 20, Jakob Poeltl 16, Andre Jackson Jr. 13.
LAL: Austin Reaves 32, Luka Doncic 30, Walker Kessler 26, Collin Sexton 25, Ziaire Williams 20, Quentin Grimes 19, Jaden Hardy 17, Kevon Looney 15, Jake LaRavia 14.
Four factors
| TOR (2025-26) | LAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.9 | 115.4 |
| DRtg | 110.1 | 113.7 |
| Pace | 101 | 100.7 |
| eFG% | 54.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 23.9% |
| FT rate | 0.265 | 0.320 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.5% |
Los Angeles Lakers · Toronto Raptors · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.