Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Atlanta Hawks to win by 2.5 points (58% win probability), projected score IND 116, ATL 119, total 235.4 (80% range 212–259). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.0 points toward ATL).
Matchup
Atlanta Hawks rank 17 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.6 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Indiana Pacers rank 23 (−2.3, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.9 points to Atlanta Hawks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.5-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Atlanta Hawks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (IND margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.5 (IND margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.0 (IND margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (IND margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −0.9 (IND margin)
Rest and travel
ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, 714 miles of travel. IND: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
Four factors
| ATL (2025-26) | IND (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.3 | 108.3 |
| DRtg | 110.9 | 116 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 103.4 |
| eFG% | 55.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 21.7% |
| FT rate | 0.234 | 0.252 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 55.6% |
Indiana Pacers · Atlanta Hawks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.