Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Orlando Magic to win by 7.4 points (73% win probability), projected score ORL 123, WAS 116, total 238.7 (80% range 215–262). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.3 points toward ORL).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.3 points against an average opponent, about 26 projected wins in 2026-27); Orlando Magic rank 12 (+2.1, about 43 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 7.4 points to Orlando Magic; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.4-point margin above. A 73% win probability means Orlando Magic should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ORL margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.2 (ORL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.3 (ORL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.9 (ORL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.2 (ORL margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: 2 day(s) of rest, 758 miles of travel. ORL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
WAS: Anthony Davis 24, Will Riley 24, Anthony Gill 22, Bub Carrington 22, Deandre Ayton 19, Justin Champagnie 18, Bilal Coulibaly 17, Trae Young 17, Tre Johnson 17.
ORL: Paolo Banchero 31, Desmond Bane 28, Jalen Suggs 27, Wendell Carter Jr. 26, Anthony Black 23, Franz Wagner 22, Jamal Cain 15, Nikola Vucevic 15, Tristan da Silva 13.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | ORL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 112 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 104 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.0% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.311 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.5% |
Orlando Magic · Washington Wizards · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.