Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Dallas Mavericks to win by 4.0 points (63% win probability), projected score DAL 119, SAC 115, total 233.3 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward DAL).
Matchup
Sacramento Kings rank 28 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 24 (−3.1, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 1.7 points to Dallas Mavericks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.0-point margin above. A 63% win probability means Dallas Mavericks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DAL margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.6 (DAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.9 (DAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (DAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (DAL margin)
Rest and travel
SAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 420 miles of travel. DAL: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
SAC: Nique Clifford 29, Maxime Raynaud 26, Precious Achiuwa 24, Daeqwon Plowden 23, Keegan Murray 23, Domantas Sabonis 22, Zach LaVine 21, De'Andre Hunter 18, Dylan Cardwell 17.
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
Four factors
| SAC (2025-26) | DAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 118.4 | 113.8 |
| Pace | 101.8 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 23.2% |
| FT rate | 0.256 | 0.287 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 54.6% |
Dallas Mavericks · Sacramento Kings · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.