New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Memphis Grizzlies to win by 0.0 points (50% win probability), projected score MEM 121, NOP 121, total 242.5 (80% range 219–266). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.9 points toward NOP).
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans rank 20 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.8 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 26 (−3.8, about 28 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.0 points to New Orleans Pelicans; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.0-point margin above. A 50% win probability means Memphis Grizzlies should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MEM margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.9 (MEM margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.4 (MEM margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.5 (MEM margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (MEM margin)
Rest and travel
NOP: 1 day(s) of rest, 359 miles of travel. MEM: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
NOP: Trey Murphy III 23, Jeremiah Fears 23, Saddiq Bey 22, Julian Reese 20, Derik Queen 20, Zion Williamson 19, Dejounte Murray 19, Josh Oduro 18, Bennedict Mathurin 17.
MEM: Jahmai Mashack 24, Zach Edey 20, Micah Peavy 20, Javon Small 19, Walter Clayton Jr. 18, Jerami Grant 18, GG Jackson 18, Ty Jerome 18, Jaylen Wells 18.
Four factors
| NOP (2025-26) | MEM (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 109.9 |
| DRtg | 115.6 | 115.6 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 104.1 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.7% |
| FT rate | 0.284 | 0.251 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 56.2% |
Memphis Grizzlies · New Orleans Pelicans · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.