Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Minnesota Timberwolves to win by 4.7 points (65% win probability), projected score MIN 117, MIL 113, total 229.6 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.5 points toward MIN).
Matchup
Milwaukee Bucks rank 25 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.5 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 (−0.1, about 37 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.4 points to Minnesota Timberwolves; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.7-point margin above. A 65% win probability means Minnesota Timberwolves should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIN margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.5 (MIN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.2 (MIN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.7 (MIN margin)
Rest and travel
MIL: 1 day(s) of rest, 298 miles of travel. MIN: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 1,111 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
MIL: AJ Green 22, Ousmane Dieng 22, Kevin Porter Jr. 21, Ryan Rollins 21, Tyler Herro 21, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20, Jericho Sims 19, Cormac Ryan 18, Pete Nance 17.
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
Four factors
| MIL (2025-26) | MIN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 110.3 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 116.5 | 110.5 |
| Pace | 99.9 | 103.2 |
| eFG% | 56.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 25.7% |
| FT rate | 0.223 | 0.285 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 52.9% |
Minnesota Timberwolves · Milwaukee Bucks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.