Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 3.0 points (60% win probability), projected score HOU 111, BOS 108, total 218.0 (80% range 194–242). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (2.6 points toward HOU).
Matchup
Boston Celtics rank 4 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.1 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.9 points to Boston Celtics; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.0-point margin above. A 60% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (HOU margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.1 (HOU margin)
- Player on-court impact: −0.8 (HOU margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (HOU margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +2.6 (HOU margin)
Rest and travel
BOS: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 847 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
BOS: Jayson Tatum 31, Derrick White 31, Paul George 30, Payton Pritchard 29, Sam Hauser 21, Neemias Queta 21, Baylor Scheierman 15, Mike Conley 13, Mitchell Robinson 12.
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
Four factors
| BOS (2025-26) | HOU (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 117.2 | 115.1 |
| DRtg | 109.4 | 109.9 |
| Pace | 97.7 | 99 |
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 34.8% |
| FT rate | 0.207 | 0.260 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.0% |
Houston Rockets · Boston Celtics · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.