Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 12.7 points (86% win probability), projected score SAS 126, UTA 113, total 238.6 (80% range 215–262). The largest driver is player on-court impact (6.6 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Utah Jazz rank 21 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.8 points against an average opponent, about 34 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 10.6 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.7-point margin above. A 86% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.6 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +6.6 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,090 miles of travel. SAS: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
UTA: Ace Bailey 23, Lauri Markkanen 22, Jaren Jackson Jr. 21, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Jusuf Nurkic 21, Kyle Filipowski 20, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 20, Oscar Tshiebwe 17.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
Four factors
| UTA (2025-26) | SAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.3 | 116.6 |
| DRtg | 119.2 | 108.7 |
| Pace | 104.9 | 102.5 |
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 26.3% |
| FT rate | 0.277 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 52.2% |
San Antonio Spurs · Utah Jazz · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.