Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 5.3 points (67% win probability), projected score DEN 119, POR 114, total 233.5 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.6 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers rank 14 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+1.1 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Denver Nuggets rank 9 (+3.6, about 47 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.5 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.3-point margin above. A 67% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DEN margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.7 (DEN margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.6 (DEN margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (DEN margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.6 (DEN margin)
Rest and travel
POR: 1 day(s) of rest, 370 miles of travel, at altitude. DEN: 2 day(s) of rest, 585 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
POR: Jrue Holiday 29, Deni Avdija 28, Toumani Camara 26, Damian Lillard 23, Ja Morant 23, Scoot Henderson 22, Micah Potter 19, Donovan Clingan 19, Robert Williams III 16.
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
Four factors
| POR (2025-26) | DEN (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111 | 119.6 |
| DRtg | 111.3 | 114.5 |
| Pace | 103.6 | 100.8 |
| eFG% | 53.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.6% |
| FT rate | 0.280 | 0.294 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.3% |
Denver Nuggets · Portland Trail Blazers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.