Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Golden State Warriors to win by 0.4 points (51% win probability), projected score GSW 116, PHX 116, total 231.5 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.7 points toward PHX).
Matchup
Phoenix Suns rank 16 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.7 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Golden State Warriors rank 13 (+1.5, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.8 points to Golden State Warriors; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.4-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Golden State Warriors should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (GSW margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.0 (GSW margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.1 (GSW margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.2 (GSW margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.7 (GSW margin)
Rest and travel
PHX: 2 day(s) of rest, 651 miles of travel. GSW: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
PHX: Devin Booker 30, Jalen Green 27, Dillon Brooks 27, Miles Bridges 24, Luke Kennard 23, Oso Ighodaro 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Jordan Goodwin 17, Pat Spencer 15.
GSW: Brandin Podziemski 23, Stephen Curry 22, Draymond Green 22, Moses Moody 22, Gui Santos 21, Jimmy Butler III 21, De'Anthony Melton 17, Kristaps Porzingis 17, Al Horford 16.
Four factors
| PHX (2025-26) | GSW (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.1 | 112 |
| DRtg | 110.6 | 112.6 |
| Pace | 100.1 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.8% |
| FT rate | 0.225 | 0.238 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.3% |
Golden State Warriors · Phoenix Suns · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.