Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina 29.3, Syracuse 21.2 at Kenan Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: North Carolina wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 50.4 combined points.
Syracuse is 2-4, scoring 31.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+6 per game). North Carolina is 4-2, scoring 23.5 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+4.3 per game).
Expect Syracuse to find it hard going: North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) outranks Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense). North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) meets Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points North Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 14 and North Carolina by 31 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina by about 6. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30. Syracuse won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Syracuse / North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina -8 | 49.5 | +270 / -350 |
| Opening line | North Carolina -9.5 | 44.5 | +275 / -350 |
| DraftKings | North Carolina -7.5 | 49.5 | +275 / -345 |
| FanDuel | North Carolina -8.5 | 48.5 | +275 / -350 |
| BetRivers | North Carolina -8 | 49.5 | +255 / -335 |
| BetMGM | North Carolina -8 | 49.5 | +270 / -325 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina -8 | 50.4 | 70% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina -8 | 49.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina -8 | 50.4 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina -8.1 · market North Carolina -8 · difference +0.1 pts (North Carolina view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 49.5 · difference +0.9
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Syracuse 21.2, North Carolina 29.3 | North Carolina 70%wrong winner | 9.1 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Syracuse vs North Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Syracuse | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.2#118 | 19.3#120 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.9#130 | 24.5#65 |
| Yards per play | 5.28#113 | 5.16#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66#130 | 5.11#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.5#103 | 115.3#129 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.8#74 | 184.6#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.0#96 | 141.7#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.3#116 | 203.1#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75#133 | 1.17#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#104 | 0.83#99 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#117 | 2.67#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83#123 | 1.83#75 |
| Stat | Syracuse | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#126 | -0.03#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#108 | -0.01#55 |
| Success rate | 36.9%#125 | 38.3%#115 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.7%#123 | 40.8%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#114 | 9.5%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#124 | 9.9%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#109 | 11.7%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#73 | 12.9%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#104 | 3.71#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.51#127 | 3.94#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#123 | own 30#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#76 | own 29#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#36 | 58.1#134 |
| Stat | Syracuse | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#106 | -0.06#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#124 | -0.01#84 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#70 | +0.04#96 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#111 | -0.06#38 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4%#106 | 36.9%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 34.7%#123 | 38.2%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#62 | 17.9%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.0%#127 | 27.3%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7%#107 | 27.5%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.7%#113 | 39.6%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#75 | 42.9%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.6%#111 | 48.9%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.1%#104 | 53.8%#26 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 8 projections
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