Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 29.9, East Carolina 22.9 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Memphis wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 52.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Carolina is 3-3, scoring 23.5 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-0.3 per game). Memphis is 5-2, scoring 35.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+13.1 per game).
Expect East Carolina to find it hard going: Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) outranks East Carolina's below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.2 points against an average defense). Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th); that mismatch is where most of Memphis's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 16 and Memphis by 30 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 4.9. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: East Carolina 34, Memphis 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 22.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Carolina / Memphis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 | +330 / -450 |
| Opening line | Memphis -9.5 | 53.5 | +310 / -395 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 | +330 / -425 |
| FanDuel | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 | +330 / -480 |
| BetRivers | Memphis -10 | 54.5 | +295 / -400 |
| BetMGM | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 | +333 / -425 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Memphis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -7 | 52.7 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -10.5 | 55.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -10 | 55.7 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Memphis win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -7 · market Memphis -10.5 · difference -3.5 pts (Memphis view)
- Total
- model 52.7 · market 55.5 · difference -2.8
Model margin is 3.5 pts more toward East Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Carolina 22.9, Memphis 29.9 | Memphis 68%right winner | 0.0 | 22.3 |
| New formula | East Carolina 22.8, Memphis 30.0 | Memphis 68%right winner | 0.2 | 22.2 |
Final: East Carolina 34, Memphis 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Carolina vs Memphis: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#100 | 35.4#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8#73 | 22.3#58 |
| Yards per play | 5.55#107 | 7.67#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94#24 | 6.31#118 |
| Rushing yards per game | 161.7#80 | 251.4#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.2#99 | 275.4#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.2#77 | 190.1#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.0#35 | 201.0#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 1.29#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#59 | 1.14#41 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#19 | 2.29#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17#97 | 2.14#90 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#103 | +0.17#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#16 | +0.04#67 |
| Success rate | 39.7%#114 | 48.9%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.0%#21 | 38.2%#38 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#95 | 15.9%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#99 | 14.2%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 16.8%#15 | 13.4%#80 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#60 | 13.1%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.23#123 | 4.43#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.67#58 | 3.27#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 26#131 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 27#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5#81 | 68.7#37 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#102 | +0.17#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | +0.18#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#26 | +0.14#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#21 | -0.07#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9%#118 | 50.8%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3%#101 | 48.2%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#94 | 12.7%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4%#115 | 33.7%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#68 | 23.6%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.1%#120 | 46.9%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#51 | 33.0%#23 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.5%#127 | 53.8%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.5%#40 | 58.4%#68 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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