Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Army 28, Tulsa 25.4 at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Army wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 53.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Army is 4-2, scoring 34.8 and allowing 20 points per game (+14.8 per game). Tulsa is 4-3, scoring 29 and allowing 22.4 points per game (+6.6 per game).
Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Tulsa's below-average defense (89th); that mismatch is where most of Army's projected points come from. Expect Tulsa to find it hard going: Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) outranks Tulsa's below-average offense (87th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Army by 25 and Tulsa by 20 about 80% of the time.
Tulsa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Army is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Army 38, Tulsa 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 19.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Army / Tulsa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -1.5 | 52.5 | -118 / -102 |
| Opening line | Tulsa -1.5 | 50.5 | -108 / -112 |
| DraftKings | Army -1.5 | 53.5 | -118 / -102 |
| FanDuel | Army -1.5 | 53.5 | -115 / -104 |
| BetRivers | Army -1 | 53.5 | -115 / -107 |
| BetMGM | Army -1.5 | 52.5 | -118 / +100 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulsa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Army -2.5 | 53.4 | 43% |
| Market consensus | Army -1.5 | 52.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | Army -1.5 | 53.2 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulsa win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Army -2.6 · market Army -1.5 · difference -1.1 pts (Tulsa view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 52.5 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Army than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Army 28.0, Tulsa 25.4 | Army 57%right winner | 0.4 | 19.6 |
| New formula | Army 28.0, Tulsa 25.5 | Army 56%right winner | 0.5 | 19.5 |
Final: Army 38, Tulsa 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Army vs Tulsa: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Army | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.8#39 | 29.0#72 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0#41 | 22.4#60 |
| Yards per play | 6.44#45 | 5.58#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.41#120 | 5.71#76 |
| Rushing yards per game | 351.2#1 | 169.4#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 67.5#138 | 195.0#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.0#72 | 209.4#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.5#78 | 209.6#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#16 | 0.29#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#133 | 1.43#13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#129 | 2.29#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#3 | 1.29#36 |
| Stat | Army | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.26#10 | +0.12#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#131 | +0.01#49 |
| Success rate | 51.2%#8 | 39.8%#112 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#119 | 40.0%#54 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#79 | 10.8%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2%#116 | 10.9%#45 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#107 | 11.2%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#12 | 13.9%#83 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.86#20 | 4.28#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33#31 | 3.18#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 31#43 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#14 | own 28#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#72 | 65.3#69 |
| Stat | Army | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.28#2 | +0.16#25 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#41 | +0.07#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#129 | +0.02#65 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#124 | -0.01#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.3%#2 | 40.8%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 42.4%#69 | 37.8%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.6%#2 | 13.8%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.1%#34 | 23.9%#131 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.4%#130 | 34.1%#113 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.2%#11 | 31.0%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.6%#123 | 42.2%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.1%#29 | 70.4%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.2%#25 | 47.1%#24 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Army schedule · Tulsa schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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