Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Hampton 34.3, Virginia Lynchburg 23.9 at Armstrong Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Hampton wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 58.2 combined points.
Virginia Lynchburg has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Hampton has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia Lynchburg by 12 and Hampton by 33 about 80% of the time.
Hampton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Hampton by about 8.3.
Result: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Hampton 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.6 points and the total by 13.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Virginia Lynchburg 23.9, Hampton 34.3 | Hampton 75%right winner | 34.6 | 13.2 |
| New formula | Virginia Lynchburg 16.6, Hampton 42.2 | Hampton 93%right winner | 19.4 | 13.8 |
Final: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Hampton 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Virginia Lynchburg vs Hampton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 8.7 | 17.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 55.7 | 36.7 |
| Yards per play | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.04 | 6.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 91.3 | 190.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.3 | 140.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 299.7 | 246.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.0 | 195.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 37.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 10.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 14.6% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.7 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.3% | 39.9% |
| Passing success rate | 26.4% | 36.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.1% | 19.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 37.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0% | 36.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 60.7% | 47.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia Lynchburg schedule · Hampton schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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